On the latest episode of Onward, Fundrise CEO Ben Miller is joined by Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Zonda and one of the smartest people we know for analyzing and understanding housing in the economy. As we’re still in the early weeks of 2024, Ben and Ali’s conversation focuses on lessons learned from the past year, when a confluence of factors resulted in an economic period that still demands attention and deciphering: What happened to the recession that most economists believed was all but inevitable a year ago? Did we dodge that recession or just delay it? How do you tell the difference between a soft landing and an economic downturn that’s simply slowing? Is it possible to rely too much on history when trying to develop a forecast?
Ultimately, and unsurprisingly, there’s no obvious answer to any of these questions, but each data point in Ben and Ali’s discussion offers important insights, worth carrying forward into this next stage for the market. For instance, Ali explains how the impact of consumer behavior — from amassing excess savings that helped blunt the pain of inflation, to driving discretionary housing purchases even when high rates seemed stifling — can keep the economy afloat, despite traditional indicators suggesting it’s due to collapse. Similarly, Ben shares his observation that you can’t underestimate the power of government intervention. Is a recession even possible when the government is stimulating? From spending, to stimulating, to home pricing, to morphing demographics, to generational theory, Ali and Ben unpack the multitude of factors that made 2023 an exceptional year for the economic history books.
Looking ahead, Ali shares her thoughts on which housing markets are most exciting going into the next twelve months (and which are likely to lose momentum). She also shares insights based on home builder surveys, leading to Ali’s forecast for what home pricing will look like through the rest of the year. And, importantly, when Ali’s spoken to builders, the two sentiments that have stood out have been both a sense of caution and a sense of optimism. As Ben says, that’s terrific news: Those emotions, together, tend to equal a balanced economy… and often what comes out of that balance is real, lasting growth.
All this and more, on the latest episode of Onward.
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